As another heatwave begins in Europe, you might think all this dry, sunny weather would benefit drinks sales. We consider if that’s true, as well as the impact on wine, and which styles stand to benefit.
While the heat and drought have brought renewed focus to climate change’s impact on wine production – not least the devastating wildfires in France and Spain – rather less has been said about the weather’s effect on consumption. Yet sunny conditions clearly influence what people drink, as well as what they eat.
A shift toward cold-served wine
In the UK, news surfaced during the first heatwave in late May that sales of salad had surged, while db noted last summer that temperatures ranging from 20°C to 26°C had seen consumers drop red and white wine in favour of rosé.
Certainly, a general trend in global consumption has seen a move away from reds, and towards sparkling, white and rosé wines. Until recently, the world drank more red than white and rosé combined, but red’s share has now fallen below 50%.
Add orange wines to that mix – another growth area, if still a niche category – and all these styles share one thing in common: they are served cold.
As bright spots in an otherwise declining global wine market, one must assume their resilience owes something to the refreshment they offer, particularly during the more regular spells of extended hot weather now affecting Europe.
How producers are responding
The impact has been varied. For some producers, the shift away from red wine consumption has prompted them to make rosé from existing red vineyards, while others have experimented with blanc de noirs – white wines made from red grapes such as Malbec (Trivento) and Cabernet (Changyu Moser XV). Some may be grafting over or replanting red vineyards with white varieties altogether.
Large-scale vineyard removals have also taken place, particularly in red-focused Chile and Bordeaux, which have each uprooted nearly 30,000 hectares over the past three years. Both regions are now looking to reposition themselves.
Chile is promoting the crisp whites and lighter reds from its cooler Pacific-facing vineyards under the Chile Pacífico banner, highlighting fresh Sauvignon Blanc, Pinot Noir and coastal seafood pairings – a notable shift for a country better known for Carmenère and steak straight from the asado.
Bordeaux, meanwhile, is promoting “chillable” reds, reviving its historic “claret” name for a new generation of lighter, fruit-forward wines designed to be served cold and appeal to younger consumers. Whether the strategy succeeds remains to be seen, although major brands including Calvet and Mouton Cadet have already embraced the concept.
Testing the theory: what collectors want
To test whether warmer weather is genuinely altering tastes among collectors, iDealwine is repeating its climate-focused consumer survey this autumn. Co-founder Angélique de Lencquesaing believes hotter summers are already influencing the fine wine market. As she tells db in a recent podcast, Burgundy may remain the leading beneficiary, but she also expects growing demand for refreshing whites such as Chenin Blanc and Riesling, alongside lighter reds based on Cabernet Franc and Grenache.
The last time the online auction business ran such a survey, it found warmer weather was already affecting customers’ buying decisions. While only a minority (18%) said they would choose a different variety in an attempt to source lower-ABV wines, as much as 45% admitted to seeking out more white wine in future, while 74% said they favoured older vintages as temperatures rose, viewing them as more balanced than younger, hotter-year wines.
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The UK’s ‘feta fatigue’
In sharp contrast, however, last week – following the July heatwave – UK supermarket Waitrose released figures showing a spike in sales of South African red wine alongside cottage pie, suggesting British consumers were tiring of cold drinks and light foods. The retailer dubbed the trend ‘feta fatigue’ and ‘reverse comfort eating’ – with lighthearted social commentary suggested that Brits could only manage a few days away from stodgy food and warming wines.
Clearly, forecasting what people will drink when the mercury climbs is hard to do accurately. But there’s a bigger concern for anyone making and selling wine: consumers might move away from the drink altogether if temperatures continue to rise.
When beer and water win out
Indeed, some of the category’s wider struggles may themselves be linked to climate: at a certain point, wine’s alcohol content becomes less appealing. Lower-alcohol beverages – especially beer – and soft drinks typically gain ground during periods of extreme heat.
In France, a study of drinks consumption in the on-trade by Fyre compared sales trends during the heatwave period of 22–28 June this year with a reference week from 8–14 June. It showed water volumes increased by 36%; dairy and plant-based drinks rose by 33%; syrups and concentrates by 26%, and soft drinks by 18%.
Meanwhile, hot chocolate volumes fell by 49%, tea by 37% and coffee by 26%. Among alcoholic drinks, beer proved the most resilient, remaining almost stable at -0.3%, while wine volumes fell by 25% and spirits declined by 14%. Despite the strong growth in water and soft drinks, total beverage volumes fell by 5.5% during the heatwave week.
Although the report doesn’t mention it, this downward trend may have been influenced by Paris’s ban on public alcohol consumption during the most extreme point of June’s heatwave (26–28 June) – though licensed bars and restaurants were exempt.
Nevertheless, the findings show that when its gets very hot, drinks sales actually decline.
Supporting such a conclusion comes with research published in March this year from the University of California, ETH Zurich and North Carolina State University, which found that alcohol sales increase with temperature up to just over 32°C before beginning to decline, partly because people are less inclined to go out.
The bigger question
As Europe’s summers grow hotter, the wine trade is adapting with more cold-served and lighter styles. But if temperatures continue climbing, the bigger challenge may not be which wines consumers choose – but whether they choose wine at all.
Read more
Could chilled reds be a premium move?
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