As the fine wine market shows clear signs of bottoming out, some regions and producers are spearheading the recovery, piquing the interest of collectors.
Although Liv-ex’s key indices are stabilising, there is wide variation between performances of individual component wines. Some probably have further to fall; others appear to have found their floors and are now tracking gently upwards. For buyers looking for safer moments to capitalise on the current market, wines that have shown evidence of reaching their floors may be the right place to start. Which wines fall into this category?
Defining an upward trend
There are many wines that are now trading above their 2025 lows, but a consistent upward trend is rarer to find. Even if a market price rises, there may be little transactional data to validate its direction. Thus, we turn to trades to assess true market trends. For the following analysis, we considered only wines that traded at least twice quarterly, with traded value totalling at least £5,000.
A volume-weighted, quarterly average of trade price was then taken for each quarter since Q2 2025 – the broader market stabilised in Q3, so floors were likely to be reached around this time. An upward trend was defined as three or four quarter-on-quarter increases in volume-weighted average trade price over the past year.
Bordeaux
Bordeaux comprised more of the top-performing wines than any other region, thanks in part to its general liquidity (high volume and Liv-ex’s most traded region). Mouton dominated here, with five vintages featured on the list: 2015, 2005, 2010, 2018 and 2008. The 2015 had the strongest performance over the entire period, but appears to have come to rest at its 2020 lows, the bulk of its upward movement taking place in late 2025. Lafite 2015 tells a slightly different story. While, like Mouton 2015, it is currently trading at its 2020 lows, there is less evidence of prices coming to rest. With consistent upward momentum and a tight spread, there is more evidence pointing to continued positive price performance.
Champagne
As with Bordeaux, Champagne’s relative liquidity has allowed for more of the region’s wines to be considered in this analysis. Nevertheless, the Liv-ex Champagne 50 does appear to have now found support on its long-term upward trend line – as we settle into recovery, it should be a region to watch. Some of the most impressive performances (defined upward trends) of the past year, however, have been for non-vintage Champagnes such as Pol Roger Brut Réserve and Jacques Selosse’s Initial.
Other regions
Few other wines fulfilled the criteria for this list – though there are likely others with newer or less consistently defined upward trends. Of the three identified, Opus One 2013 looks most interesting, its trade frequency increasing as prices rise. It is now trading above its Market Price at similar levels to its 2022 peak. Taking a longer-term view, recent trades broadly align with a sustained upward trend.
