With the Italian elections coming up next year, Meloni’s spat with Trump could be an opportunity for her to shore up her image at home.
It has been quite the Nato Summit in Ankara over the past two days. US president Donald Trump renewed his interest in grabbing Greenland and went on to direct some particularly harsh words Spain’s way. Goodwill between much of the 32-member North Atlantic alliance and the US is at an all-time low. Amid the chaos though, the unflappable figure of Giorgia Meloni stands out. Not so long ago, the Italian prime minister was projecting an image of herself as a natural “bridge” between the EU and its ally on the other side of the pond. With that idea apparently lying in tatters, there now seems to be a focus on renewing Italy’s position as a natural link between Europe’s southern flank and Africa.
How times change. Trump had nothing but warm words for Meloni after her decisive election victory in late 2022 and she was the only EU leader invited to his second inauguration ceremony. This year, however, relations have nosedived.
The two leaders have been at loggerheads since June. During the G7 summit in Évian-Les-Bains in France, Trump accused Meloni of “begging” to have her photo taken with him. She then took to social media to deny the allegations, asking Trump to spend more time focusing on the enemies of the West. Just days before Ankara, Trump posted an image of Meloni gazing into his eyes with the caption “Restraining Order Needed”. This time around, Meloni held her tongue (and thumb).
Is Giorgia Meloni done with the US? Unlikely. Despite her change of language towards Trump, she has left the heavy lifting to foreign minister Antonio Tajani and defence minister, Guido Crosetto. In truth, a spat with Trump – even if the reality is more complex – plays well for Meloni at home. In Italy conflict with Iran is unpopular and a poll published by the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) and Ipsos at the end of June found that 51 per cent of Italians no longer found the US a reliable ally (38 per cent also thought that Italy needed to be more autonomous).
Meloni will be eyeing up two pivotal political events. The first is the US mid-term elections in November, when Trump looks likely to lose control of at least one of the houses of Congress. The president won’t be a lame-duck – but his wings might be clipped. The second is Italy’s own election next year, in which Meloni will be hoping for a decisive victory. Appearing too chummy with Trump isn’t a good look. Meloni, a keen operator who lost an important referendum in March, knows that perception is more important than ever.
Ed Stocker is Monocle’s Europe editor at large, based in Milan. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.
