A Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch are now in effect for the northern Gulf Coast as Isaias is forecast to strengthen and turn north toward land late this week.
The National Weather Service offices in Mobile, New Orleans and Tallahassee issued the watches at about 11 a.m. EDT Wednesday. Impacts are expected to begin Friday.
A Hurricane Watch means hurricane-force winds are possible within 48 hours.
What Forecasters Are Saying
NWS Mobile said confidence is growing that Isaias could be a strong storm at landfall.
NWS Tallahassee announced the watches and warned of lopsided impacts east of the center.
Timing
Storm surge: Friday morning until Saturday morning.
Tropical storm-force winds: Friday afternoon until Saturday morning.
Hurricane-force winds: Friday afternoon until early Saturday morning, for the hardest-hit coastal areas.
Florida Panhandle: Pensacola Area
Escambia Coastal (Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay) has the highest forecast winds: 75 to 95 mph, gusts to 115 mph.
Storm surge could reach 4 to 7 feet above ground, with 6 to 10 inches of rain.
Santa Rosa Coastal (Navarre, Gulf Breeze, Bagdad) could see 70 to 90 mph winds, gusts to 110 mph, and the same 4 to 7 feet of surge.
Inland, Santa Rosa (Jay, Milton) could see 65 to 85 mph winds, gusts to 100 mph. Escambia Inland (Century, Molino) is forecast at 45 to 60 mph, gusts to 90 mph.
Okaloosa Coastal (Destin, Fort Walton Beach) could see 45 to 60 mph winds, gusts to 80 mph, and 4 to 7 feet of surge. Okaloosa Inland (Crestview) is forecast at 25 to 35 mph.
Alabama Gulf Coast
Baldwin Coastal (Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Fort Morgan) could see 55 to 70 mph winds, gusts to 100 mph.
Surge of 4 to 7 feet and 6 to 10 inches of rain are possible.
Baldwin Central (Daphne, Fairhope, Foley) is forecast at 40 to 50 mph, gusts to 85 mph, with similar surge and rain. Surge could flood the shore of Mobile Bay and the US 90 Causeway.
Mobile Coastal (Dauphin Island, Bayou La Batre, Grand Bay) could see 45 to 55 mph winds, gusts to 75 mph, and 4 to 7 feet of surge.
Mobile Central (Mobile, Prichard, Theodore) is forecast at 25 to 35 mph, gusts to 55 mph. Surge could reach downtown Mobile via the Dog River and Mobile River.
Mobile Inland (Citronelle, Saraland, Satsuma) and Baldwin Inland (Bay Minette) are under a Hurricane Watch with 4 to 8 inches and 6 to 10 inches of rain respectively. No surge is forecast.
Mississippi Coast
NWS New Orleans issued Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches for Southern Harrison and Southern Jackson counties.
Harrison (Gulfport, Biloxi, Pass Christian, Long Beach): winds of 25 to 35 mph, 3 to 5 feet of surge, 2 to 4 inches of rain.
Jackson (Pascagoula, Ocean Springs, Gautier, Moss Point): winds of 25 to 35 mph, 4 to 7 feet of surge, 3 to 6 inches of rain.
NWS New Orleans said the storm is expected to strengthen over the Gulf and then turn north.
Florida Big Bend and Emerald Coast
NWS Tallahassee issued Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches for three Florida counties.
South Walton (Santa Rosa Beach, Sandestin, Freeport): winds of 40 to 50 mph, gusts to 65 mph, and 4 to 7 feet of surge.
Coastal Bay (Panama City, Panama City Beach, Mexico Beach): winds of 30 to 40 mph, gusts to 55 mph, and 4 to 7 feet of surge.
Coastal Gulf (Port Saint Joe, Cape San Blas): winds of 30 to 40 mph, gusts to 50 mph, and 4 to 7 feet of surge.
All three areas could see an additional 4 to 8 inches of rain on already saturated ground.
Tornado Threat
The tornado threat is limited but real near the coast.
Forecasters say a few tornadoes are possible in coastal Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Be ready to shelter quickly if a Tornado Warning is issued.
Marine and Offshore Warnings
A Hurricane Watch covers coastal waters from Pensacola to Pascagoula, with winds of 50 to 70 knots, gusts to 100 knots and seas of 28 to 33 feet.
The watch also covers Mobile Bay, Perdido Bay, Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and the Mississippi Sound.
Farther offshore, the National Hurricane Center has a Hurricane Warning for the central and north-central Gulf of America.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the central Gulf Thursday night, with seas up to 29 feet. Seas could reach 33 feet in the north-central Gulf on Friday.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the western and southeastern Gulf and the northeastern Gulf. Mariners should stay in port.
Safety Reminders
Finish preparations now. Assemble disaster supplies and know your evacuation route.
If told to evacuate, leave. Storm surge is the leading cause of hurricane deaths.
Secure loose outdoor objects. NWS Mobile suggests checking that your doors and screws are secure against high wind.
The forecast cone shows only the track of the storm’s center. Wind, surge and rain can reach far outside it.
For live updates, follow NWS Mobile, NWS New Orleans and NWS Tallahassee on X.
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