The West’s perception of Asia is clouded by the US’s approach towards foreign policy. But while Donald Trump tends towards unprovoked invasions, Xi Jinping’s priorities lie beyond invading Taiwan.
Whenever there’s a destabilising event in the West, foreign-policy discussions inevitably turn to the China-Taiwan question. Will Xi Jinping use the event as an opportunity to invade his country’s island neighbour? The humbling of Donald Trump’s Republican Party after last week’s US midterm elections is the latest example of this rote formula. Endlessly linking what happens in Washington to Beijing speaks more about US hubris and than an understanding of how China operates. The unhelpful conjecture has to stop.
No one outside Zhongnanhai – China’s leadership compound in Beijing – knows what Xi Jinping is thinking. The best that we can do is guess. My estimate is that he wasn’t hosting a US election watch party, eagerly awaiting the results so that he could call up his generals and go over the latest invasion plans. There’s no denying that Beijing wants Taiwan back in the fold and that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will almost certainly invade if provoked. Xi won’t, however, be so overtly opportunistic.
The president will try to avoid war against a country that he views as a part of mainland China, only pursuing a military option when success is certain. And even then – without going all Sun Tzu’s The Art of War – success does not mean an initial victory on the battlefield. We only need to look at George W Bush’s infamous 2003 “Mission Accomplished” speech, delivered some two months after the US-led coalition invaded Iraq and more than 23 years before the last American troops withdrew.
Beijing has time on its side and Zhongnanhai has far more patience than the White House. Mao Zedong was said to have told Henry Kissinger in the 1970s that the country could wait 100 years to resolve the Taiwan question. So, at the earliest, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s countdown clock ends in 2049, when it aims to complete its “Chinese Dream” of national rejuvenation.
The ideal scenario for China would be for Taiwan to opt for reunification but this dream grows ever more fanciful with every generation. An end to the island’s independence is more likely to happen only when it has no other choice: either if Washington’s security promises falter or if the PLA becomes demonstrably stronger than the US Army.
Xi’s legacy project is ultimately to cement CCP rule in China rather than capture Taiwan. This requires restoring China to what the party sees as its rightful place as the richest, strongest and most respected country in the region, while overcoming domestic obstacles, from a stubborn housing crisis to high youth unemployment. For all the talk about China becoming more “assertive” and “belligerent” towards Taiwan, only its techniques and technology are new. The country’s mission and behaviour can be seen as the mere continuation of a project to restore wounded pride.
The fundamental trap that the West keeps falling into is judging China by US standards rather than by its own track record. Thirteen years into Xi’s presidency, China’s standing is sky high and Beijing is winning on many fronts, including technology, defence and soft-power exports such as brands and entertainment. The nation is winning hearts and minds across Asia and Global Majority countries, while a tattered Uncle Sam splashes around in the gutter, exporting hate and rattling the global economy. China’s reputation should continue to rise, provided that Beijing doesn’t do anything to compromise Asia’s current stability.
We have to remember that, while superpowers might throw their weight around, they don’t necessarily all have the same playbook. Creating idiotic acronyms such as Crink is lazy and demonstrates the West’s inability to acknowledge what the US has been up to all this time. America and Russia are the only two major powers that have invaded other sovereign nations unprovoked this century but there’s no acronym doing the rounds for that duo. Looking ahead, US boots on the ground in Havana in 2027 should have far shorter odds than PLA soldiers in Taipei.
