Rivers across the Missouri Ozarks, southeast Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma are still running well above flood stage Monday, as the runoff from last week’s heavy storms continues working through regional drainage systems — and forecasters are already warning of another significant severe weather event arriving Wednesday.
Rivers Still Rising Across the Region
The National Weather Service in Springfield issued a broad Flood Warning covering 25 Missouri counties and portions of southeast Kansas through 4:30 AM Tuesday, noting that 1 to 6 inches of rain have already fallen across the region, with numerous roads remaining closed as streams continue to rise from excess runoff. Major communities in the warning zone include Springfield, Joplin, Nixa, Ozark, Republic, Lebanon, Carthage, Neosho, Bolivar and Fort Scott.
In southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma, the Neosho River is the story. The river at Parsons, Kansas reached 22.4 feet against a 21.0-foot flood stage Monday morning. At Oswego, Kansas, it crested at 20.0 feet against a 17.0-foot flood stage. Near Commerce, Oklahoma, the Neosho is forecast to crest at 19.0 feet overnight Monday — four feet above the 15.0-foot flood stage — with Riverview Park flooding and State Highway 125 threatened near the city of Miami, according to the NWS Tulsa office. That Oklahoma Neosho warning remains in effect until Wednesday morning. “Nearly two feet of water will carry most vehicles away,” NWS Wichita warned — reinforcing the turn-around-don’t-drown message at all affected crossings.
Missouri River Rising at Hermann and Boonville
The flood story extends to Missouri’s major rivers. The Missouri River at Boonville reached 22.7 feet Monday morning — more than a foot and a half above its 21.0-foot flood stage — with low-lying rural areas and river roads flooding in Boone, Moniteau, Cooper and Howard counties. The river is forecast to fall below flood stage Tuesday morning.
Downstream at Hermann, the Missouri River is expected to crest at 21.8 feet Monday evening — a forecast the St. Louis NWS office says will persist through Wednesday afternoon before falling below the 21.0-foot flood stage. At Chamois, the river is projected to crest at 19.0 feet Tuesday evening against a 17.0-foot flood stage.
The Mississippi River at Winfield, Missouri is forecast to rise above its 26.0-foot flood stage Monday evening and crest at 26.8 feet Wednesday afternoon. Lock and Dam 25 has already begun prepositioning sandbags, plastic sheeting and a sand stockpile as a precaution.
Wednesday Brings Another Serious Storm Threat
The region will not have long to dry out before the next threat arrives. The NWS Springfield office has flagged an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe thunderstorms Wednesday with all modes of severe weather threats — large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes all possible. Non-thunderstorm winds of 30 to 45 mph are also expected Wednesday ahead of the frontal passage.
The NWS Kansas City office issued the same Level 3 severe thunderstorm risk for its coverage area Wednesday, with wind gusts possibly exceeding 45 mph. The NWS Wichita office added that heat indices will likely surpass 100°F across Kansas on Wednesday ahead of the front — a combination of pre-frontal heat, high humidity and incoming severe weather that sets up a high-impact afternoon and evening.
Residents along already-flooded river corridors should note that Wednesday’s heavy rain potential will fall on already-saturated soil and elevated streams, compounding the flood risk for any additional rainfall.
Monitor the latest river levels at water.noaa.gov and forecasts from weather.gov/sgf and weather.gov/eax.
